Review:If Only
2005-01-30 00:00:00Imagine if these Iraqi elections had been held before the US elections. They would have helped President Bush immensely. Over a year ago, I made just such a suggestion:
And think of the spectacle! All the world’s TV cameras would cover Iraqis voting in the first free elections in the Arab world. Neighboring Iranians would hanker for some real democracy of their own. The new Iraqi government would have legitimacy, having been elected by the people, and the “resistance’s” claims would ring increasingly hollow. President Bush could refer, in his Republican National Convention speech, to the first free elections in Arab history. He could make a very direct link between liberating Iraq and winning the War on Terror by bringing freedom and democracy to the middle-east.That didn’t happen, of course. I guess the Bush administration didn’t want to risk having elections before the conditions for success were reasonably guaranteed.If elections could be held successfully in Iraq by the middle of next year, it would mean a complete rout of defeatists, anti-Americans and Democrats. This is one instance where good policy and good politics intersect admirably.
But the president will still get a bounce out of this. As for the upcoming political situation in Iraq, I predicted that too, over a year ago:
In every part of the world, ethnic/racial/religious minorities vote monolithically, whileethnic/racial/religious majorities split their votes. Sunnis constitute about 20 percent of the Iraqi population. The Kurds constitute another 20 percent. When you look at those numbers, it’s apparent that the only ideas that will win in Iraq are ideas backed by cross-sectarian majorities, i.e. “moderate” ideas. Fears of an extremist government may be overstated.-- PoliPundit