2005 Gubernatorial Races
I will be updating you on New Jersey and Virginia as we approach the New Year and the beginning of the primary campaigns in both states.
At present, the GOP seems likely to hold 29 Governorships, representing 65% of the population. However 2006 features several tough races, especially New York. Therefore the GOP, to maintain its advantage, needs to take back Virginia and New Jersey, mansions we lost in 2001.
In New Jersey, the GOP has been shaken by the loss of its three strongest candidates - Chris Christie, Tom Kean, Jr., and Diane Allen. However Doug Forrester and Bret Schundler are tested candidates, both of whom seem to have learned from earlier failures. The Democrats are playing a game of chicken, as Jon Corzine and Dick Codey seem to be waiting for the other to announce their intentions. Forrester and Schundler would start a general election behind either Democrat, especially Corzine, but I see the race being tight.
In Virginia, the GOP frontrunner is Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, and the Democratic frontrunner is Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine. A Mason-Dixon poll released during the Presidential campaign showed Kilgore leading Kaine 40%-35%, with 25% undecided. I believe that Kilgore has the slight advantage in this race. He is a much stronger nominee than Mark Earley, and the Republicans seem to have recovered from the Gilmore debacle.
Please remember that the GOP controls every Southern Governorship with the exceptions of Virginia, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Tennessee. A Kilgore victory in Virginia would deal another blow to the already shattered Southern wing of the Democratic Party and dispel any notion that the Democrats are having a renaissance in the Old Dominion.
John Behan, a friend and fellow blogger, updated me about another poll, this one by the Richmond Times-Dispatch, showing Kilgore 9 points ahead, 34%-25%. Obviously the Democrats have a steep climb in the Old Dominion.
— Alexander K. McClure