Politics Blog

Is the Republican realignment here at last?

-- PoliPundit

Republican inroads into minority voting blocs may have helped carry the election:

In Ohio, Bush attracted 16 percent of the black vote, up from 9 percent in 2000. That increase represented, according to Congress Daily’s Keith Koffler, “. . . a potentially devastating amount for Kerry. Extrapolating from the exit poll, this would amount to about 50,000 new votes for Bush. If these had gone to Kerry, Bush’s 136,000 vote Ohio victory margin would have looked more like 36,000, and we would all be watching Court TV to see who won the election.”

In 2000, Bush’s meager 7 percent vote share among black Floridians nearly cost him the presidency. He bettered that in 2004, polling 13 percent against John Kerry. The president’s performance among Latino Floridians also improved, from 49 percent to 56 percent. The GOP’s improved showing among these two groups accounted for roughly 240,000 of the 381,000 votes by which the president carried Florida — 63 percent of his total margin.

In New Mexico, one of two blue states that switched to red this year, Hispanics constitute 42 percent of the population, and 25 percent of the electorate. Bush’s vote share among New Mexico Hispanics improved from 32 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2004. This generated a net Republican gain of 23,000 votes — far more than the 8,000 by which the president carried the state. In Colorado and Nevada, the president’s Hispanic vote share increased by5 and 6 points respectively, thwarting Kerry’s best chances for a red-state takeover in the West.

-- PoliPundit

In an unintentional self-parody of the liberal cocoon, Rolling Stone tries to find out how Republicans won the election by asking … three partisan Democrats!

-- PoliPundit

After reading this account of the “Party of the People’s” latest radio address, I nearly was moved to tears.

In fact, had I not previously been scheduled to go out clubbing baby seals with baseball bats today, I might actually have re-considered my political affiliation.

-- Jayson

Back on November 20, at the APEC Conference in Chile, there was an incident where Chilean security officers tried to separate President George W. Bush from at least one of his Secret Service bodyguards. The President, ever the responsive and pragmatic sort, reached through the crowds and physically pulled his guard from the Chilean officials.

At the time, there were predictable tsks from the left, such as the observation that Chile cancelled a state dinner over the incident, some even suggesting that the President’s actions damaged U.S. credibility in the region.

So, would it be so bad for President Bush to put niceities ahead of his priorities?

Actually, yes, there’s evidence that things might have been very bad, if Bush had allowed security to lapse.

The Colombian government today confirmed that FARC rebels planned to assassinate President Bush while he was travelling in South America last week.

The story was further corroborated by Colombia’s Defense Minister, Jorge Alberto Uribe, who said that tight security thwarted the attacks.

In other words, if Colombia had taken the same approach as Chile, George W. Bush might well be dead now. And if President George W. Bush had not made clear his support for the standards and protocol of the U.S. Secret Service, Colombia might not have taken such steps.

I’m not saying the Left really wants President Bush dead, but this sure looks like a case of a man protecting himself.

-- DJ Drummond

Jonathan Chait, who’s admitted to “hating President Bush,” is not at all happy with the Democrat prospects for 2008.

-- PoliPundit

Now that’s a Thanksgiving dinner worth having.

-- PoliPundit

New England

Maine: Governor John Baldacci won by a narrow margin in 2002, but the
Republican bench in this state is very thin. Baldacci will probably be
re-elected. Likely Democratic.

New Hampshire: In 2002, the Republicans successfuly held an open Senate
seat, won back the Governorship, and swept the state legislature.
However President Bush lost here in 2004, and the incumbent Republican
Governor was defeated because of a scandal. However all is not lost if
Congressman Charlie Bass runs for Governor. Toss-up.

Vermont: Jim Douglas is quite a talented politician, winning 59% of the
vote in 2004 despite President Bush’s dismal performance in this most
liberal of states. Douglas is a shrewd politician, and he will make an
excellent Senatorial nominee were Jim Jeffords to retire in 2006 or when
Patrick Leahy retires in 2010.

Massachusetts: Governor Mitt Romney once dreamed of becoming President, but the disappointing results in 2004 across the state ought to have dispelled the dream for him. He is very likely to face a strong
Democratic nominee, possibly Congressman Meehan. Romney starts out with a strong advantage, but he needs to concentrate on local issues and stop
attempting to have a national profile. Were Romney to win re-election,
he would be the frontrunner for the open seat 2008 Senate race. Lean
Republican.

Rhode Island: Governor Carcieri is quite a conservative man to be
Governor of the Ocean State, but he showed his mettle after a tragic
fire in a Rhode Island bar. Carcieri will face strong opposition, but
he will likely be re-elected. Likely Republican.

Connecticut: Jodie Rell is the most popular Governor in America, with
an approval rating off the charts. She is so popular that polls
indicate she would defeat long-time Senator Chris Dodd were he to run
for Governor. She holds a large lead over other Democratic rivals.
Solid Republican.

Northeast

New York: Republicans have their back up against the wall in the Empire
State. Charles Schumer is not running for Governor, and Eliot Sptizer
will be unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Spitzer is a popular
and aggressive politician. Republicans are disorganized. No one knows
if Governor Pataki will retire, run for re-election, or run against
Hillary Clinton. No one knows if Rudolph Giuliani will run for
Governor, for Senate, or go right for the 2008 GOP nomination. Until
Pataki and Giuliani to decide, expect a large degree of confusion. Lean
Democratic

Pennsylvania: Republicans need to mount a vigorous challenge to
Governor Edward Rendell. I will write a separate column on this state
at a later date. Lean Democratic

Maryland: Governor BobEhrlich is popular, but this is Maryland.
Democrats are likely to nominate their worst candidate, Baltimore Mayor
Martin O’Malley. Toss-up.

South

South Carolina: Governor Mark Sanford will be re-elected. Take it to
the bank. Solid Republican.

Georgia: Governor Perdue will be re-elected. As little as 10 years ago, Georgia was one of the most Democratic of states.

Florida: I’m very sanguine about our chances here. While Governor Bush
is term-limited, the Republicans control all the statewide offices and
enjoy an overwhelming among the state’s congressional delegation and in
the state legislature. The State Attorney General starts out with an
edge. Lean Republican

Alabama: Governor Riley may not win the Republican nomination, thanks
to his futile support of a state income tax. However once Republicans
settle on a nominee, they will naturally enjoy an advantage in this
increasingly Republican state. Lean Republican

Arkansas: Governor Mike Huckabee is eligible to run for re-election,
and he would easily win re-election. Were he to decline to run,
Lieutenant Governor Rockefeller would run. It would then be anyone’s guess who would win. Toss-up.

Midwest

Ohio: The local economy is not the best in the nation, and Governor Taft, a man I once thought to be Presidential timber, has been something akin to a disaster. Conservative Republicans are very unhappy with his tax-and-spend response to the recent recession, and their spokesman is Secretary of State and former Cincinatti Mayor Kenneth Blackwell. This African-American Republican is probably the frontrunner on the Republican side. Democrats have no such candidate. Their small portion of the congressional delegation consists of mental cases, and they hold no statewide office. Lean Republican.

Michigan: The Michicgan unemployment rate remains staggeringly high. In 2002, the Republicans lost the Governorship here after 12 years of John Engler. The Democrats nominated a one-term Attorney General, Jennifer Granholm, whose accomplishments in that position were lacking. With the media fawning all over her, Granholm won a very narrow victory against LG Dick Posthumous. However Republicans control all statewide offices, the state legislature, and a majority of the congressional delegation. We can expect a very strong Republican challenge here. Lean Democratic.

Illinois: Republicans are still reeling in the Land of Lincoln from the 2002 debacle and the Alan Keyes disaster. However President Bush did remarkably well here, and Republicans gained in the state legislature. The problem is Cook County, and until Republicans find a way to cut down the Democratic margin here, the Democratic candidate enjoys an edge The incumbent Governor should easily win re-election. Solid Democratic.

Wisconsin: Republicans have two strong congressmen, and either one could give Governor Doyle a run for his money. 2004 was not a good year for Wisconsin Republicans as they failed to give President Bush a second term and to defeat Russ Feingold, but I believe that the GOP has a strong chance here. Lean Democratic.

Minnesota: Governor Pawlenty is quite popular, and the Democratic nominees are not very impressive. I view Pawlenty as a first-tier Republican Presidential nominee in 2008, so he needs to overperform and carry Republicans into the state legislature on his coattails to re-enforce his sterling credentials for a Presidential bid. Likely Republican.

Iowa: Governor Tom Vilsack is term-limited, and Republicans are energized by their first victory in a Presidential race in twenty years. This should be a very close race. Toss-up.

The West:

South Dakota: Governor Rounds doesn’t need to make the rounds to win this one. Solid Republican.

Nebraska: Governor Johanns is term-limited and will likely run for the Senate, leaving Congressman Osbourne as thelikely Republican nominee. Democrats have no strong candidate here, and the Republicans will easily retain control here. Solid Republican.

Kansas: Governor Sebelius won because of a badly-divided Republican Party in 2002. She may not have such an easy time in 2006, and Republicans have several strong nominees who could defeat her bid for a second term. However a divisive primary would likely guarantee a second term for Sebelius. The Republicans need to clear the field. Toss-up.

Oklahoma: Brad Henry is very popular, but he needs to be very careful in this heavily Republican state. Any one of the Republican congressional delegation would be an excellent candidate, and President Bush won every county in Oklahoma in 2004. For now this leans Democratic, but it is in the GOP’s interest to defeat Henry or hold down his margin. Lean Democratic.

Texas: Governor Perry had some very big shoes, or should I say cowboy boots to fill, and he has failed to fill them. There is talk of a primary challenge from the state’s senior Senator, Kay Bailey Hutchinson. She would easily defeat Perry and hold the Austin mansion for the Republicans. Moreover she could appoint Henry Bonilla to fill her Senate seat. Democrats have zero chance of winning here, no matter what happens. Solid Republican.

Idaho: This is Idaho, and Republicans will win again. Solid Republican.

Wyoming: The Governor is a popular Democrat, but Senator Thomas, if he still wants to be Governor, could wrest it from the Democrat. Were Thomas to run, it would be a toss-up. For now, I say it leans Democratic, pending his decision. Lean Democratic.

Colorado: This was the big disappointment of 2004 as we lost a Senate seat and both houses of the state legislature. Governor Bill Owens, his Presidential ambition shattered, is term-limited. Republicans will need to regroup if they are to hold this seat. I believe they will, but someone needs to step up now and unite the party. Lean Republican.

Nevada: Senator Ensign is considering a run for Governor, and he would be our strongest candidate. Attorney General Sandoval also is considering a run. In any event, I expect us to hold this seat. Solid Republican.

New Mexico: Richardson is popular, and he will win re-election unless Heather Wilson challenges him. I wish we could have pre-empted this 2008 threat, but it doesn’t look too good.

Arizona: Congressman J.D. Hayworth would become a GOP star if he denied Governor Napolitano a second term. I think he will run, and I think he will defeat her. For now though I rate this a toss-up. Toss-up.

California: If anyone thinks this race is even going to be close, please consult a head doctor. Governor Schwarzenegger will win a landslide re-election. Solid Republican.

Oregon: Oregon has a slight Democratic edge that Republicans have a hard time overcoming. This is a likely Democratic retention. Likely Democratic.

Alaska: Murkowski should win re-election. Likely Republican.

Hawaii: Lingle has presided over an economic miracle. She is a 2008 Vice Presidential possibility. Likely Republican.

-- Alexander K. McClure

I enjoy reading dispatches from KCNA, the official North Korean “news” agency. On Wednesday, KCNA ran this story:

John Paul Cupp, chairman of the U.S. Group for the Study of Songun Politics, on Nov. 9 posted an article titled “What a great man Comrade Kim Jong Il is” on the Internet homepage. He began his article by recalling the fact that a member of the National Democratic Front of south Korea, who had been arrested by fascists of south Korea, shouted “Long live Comrade Kim Il Sung!", “Long live Comrade Kim Jong Il!” and “Long live the Juche idea!” at the last moments of his life.

Then there are questions as to why do intellectuals respect and revere General Kim Jong Il so deeply, why do they so readily dedicate their lives to him and why are people so proud to call his august name.

He explained in the article that Kim Jong Il is the most prominent leader in the present era just as President Kim Il Sung was.

Though the socialist movement suffered setbacks in different countries, the brilliant and august name of Kim Jong Il serves as a symbol of the militant and invincible defender of the world, he stressed, adding:

In this new era of Songun when the popular masses are fully displaying their creative ingenuity thanks to the might of the army, the august name of Kim Jong Il is deeply enshrined in the hearts of humankind who is working hard to achieve complete independence.

Ignore the laughable KNCA prose. The story is true. And here’s the web page in question. Scroll down and you’ll notice all kinds of Communist propaganda, including posters of North Korean missiles destroying the US capitol. “Useful idiots,” or damnable traitors? We report, you decide.

-- PoliPundit

Far-left Democratic Congresswoman, Zoe Lofgren, of the San Francisco Bay Area, plans to introduce a prospective Constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College.

Cute, huh?

Incidentally, this will not be Ms. Lofgren’s “15 minutes,” so to speak.

Last March, a woman who had worked for Lofgren as a Congressional aide, back in 2002, was arrested by the F.B.I., on charges that she had served as a “paid agent” for the Iraqi Intelligence Services, both prior, and subsequent, to the U.S.-led military assault to take down Saddam Hussein’s government.

And in a final bit of liberal irony, Congresswoman Lofgren’s former aide began her political career as a reporter for the Pravda-like Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Um, could you have scripted all that for an uproarious political satire?

Hat tip: To my good buddy, Kurt Schlichter, hard-core, defense-side litigator, from So. Cal., and a true American hero.

-- Jayson