Politics Blog

Republican inroads into minority voting blocs may have helped carry the election:

In Ohio, Bush attracted 16 percent of the black vote, up from 9 percent in 2000. That increase represented, according to Congress Daily’s Keith Koffler, “. . . a potentially devastating amount for Kerry. Extrapolating from the exit poll, this would amount to about 50,000 new votes for Bush. If these had gone to Kerry, Bush’s 136,000 vote Ohio victory margin would have looked more like 36,000, and we would all be watching Court TV to see who won the election.”

In 2000, Bush’s meager 7 percent vote share among black Floridians nearly cost him the presidency. He bettered that in 2004, polling 13 percent against John Kerry. The president’s performance among Latino Floridians also improved, from 49 percent to 56 percent. The GOP’s improved showing among these two groups accounted for roughly 240,000 of the 381,000 votes by which the president carried Florida — 63 percent of his total margin.

In New Mexico, one of two blue states that switched to red this year, Hispanics constitute 42 percent of the population, and 25 percent of the electorate. Bush’s vote share among New Mexico Hispanics improved from 32 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2004. This generated a net Republican gain of 23,000 votes — far more than the 8,000 by which the president carried the state. In Colorado and Nevada, the president’s Hispanic vote share increased by5 and 6 points respectively, thwarting Kerry’s best chances for a red-state takeover in the West.

— PoliPundit

Is the Republican realignment here at last?

— PoliPundit

Back on November 20, at the APEC Conference in Chile, there was an incident where Chilean security officers tried to separate President George W. Bush from at least one of his Secret Service bodyguards. The President, ever the responsive and pragmatic sort, reached through the crowds and physically pulled his guard from the Chilean officials.

At the time, there were predictable tsks from the left, such as the observation that Chile cancelled a state dinner over the incident, some even suggesting that the President’s actions damaged U.S. credibility in the region.

So, would it be so bad for President Bush to put niceities ahead of his priorities?

Actually, yes, there’s evidence that things might have been very bad, if Bush had allowed security to lapse.

The Colombian government today confirmed that FARC rebels planned to assassinate President Bush while he was travelling in South America last week.

The story was further corroborated by Colombia’s Defense Minister, Jorge Alberto Uribe, who said that tight security thwarted the attacks.

In other words, if Colombia had taken the same approach as Chile, George W. Bush might well be dead now. And if President George W. Bush had not made clear his support for the standards and protocol of the U.S. Secret Service, Colombia might not have taken such steps.

I’m not saying the Left really wants President Bush dead, but this sure looks like a case of a man protecting himself.

— DJ Drummond

After reading this account of the “Party of the People’s” latest radio address, I nearly was moved to tears.

In fact, had I not previously been scheduled to go out clubbing baby seals with baseball bats today, I might actually have re-considered my political affiliation.

— Jayson

In an unintentional self-parody of the liberal cocoon, Rolling Stone tries to find out how Republicans won the election by asking … three partisan Democrats!

— PoliPundit

Having carved up one turkey yesterday, it seems only fitting that I turn my knives on the largest turkey out there today, CBS News.

Ordinarily, I would not pick on a defenseless MSM like this, butsince Les Mooves has been playing at the notion of CBS taking a serious look at Rathergate, it is reasonable to review their recent performance as an objective news team. The results are, well, predictable.

I will begin with Iraq, because CBS did just that. CBS began its newscast with the report that a number of political parties in Iraq want to delay the elections, as if to say that the country is being forced to hold elections it does not want. In actual fact, even the United Nations (grudgingly) agrees Iraq is ready for elections.

The situation, when you look deeper, is that the more radical and smaller parties would like a delay, in order for them to have a better chance. Of winning or simply stirring up trouble, I will let the reader discern.

Then there’s Iran. President Bush worked with European leaders to help negotiate a diplomatic resolution to the crisis caused by Iran’s enhancement of uranium, and praised the agreement without mentioning his care to speak softly while the negotiations progressed, but CBS News did not mention the accord anywhere on its news page.

In what I consider a related indicator of how CBS sees its job as a source for information, CBS’ telecast tonight promised to explain telephone charges besides the normal rates, but when they got down to playing their piece on the air, the highlight was an interview with a Mensa member apologizing that even he could not decipher the various phone company fees and tariffs. The network put their piece on their website, but apparently realized the conflict between their promise and the facts, and did things the ‘CBS Way’; they ignored the problems in their presentation, and hid the evidence; they seem to have removed that page.

So, all in all, CBS News continues to provide the same level of quality and integrity they have maintained for the past 30 years. Not that’s a very high level of standards, but at least they’re consistent.

Consistent BS News, as always.

UPDATE: I neglected to add the key word “telephone” to the rates question. As always, alert readers ellsworth butler and Von Aras caught it imediately.

— DJ Drummond

It looks as though the sort of domestic regime change that actually will benefit America and her citizens finally has arrived.

Not a day too soon, I might add.

— Jayson

I expect President Bush, as part of Karl Rove’ s grand strategy for a Republican majority, will push social security reform in the next Congress.

According to a recent poll, only 31% of Americans expect social security to pay the benefits they anticipate upon retirement. 49% believe that President Bush’s investment plan is a good idea.

— Alexander K. McClure

Vermont: Jim Jeffords is not really a Democrat, but we all know what being an independent in Vermont means. Jeffords is a far-left liberal, and Republicans would love to punish him for his 2001 betrayal of the party which re-elected him in 2000. However Governor Douglas does not seem ready to run against him, and Lieutenant Governor Dubie may have his eye on the Congressional seat.

Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy seems likely to run for another term, and the brilliant voters here will probably give him another term, unless the GOP can coax some wealthy businessman or former Governor into the race.

Connecticut: Joe Lieberman is one of my favorite Democrats. I will never forget his heroic defense of the invasion of Iraq, even though it cost him the presidential nomination of his party. However he is a loyal Democrat, and unless he is appointed to the cabinet, Lieberman will stay a Democrat. He may retire, in which case the GOP will probably nominate Congresswoman Johnson. It would be a very close race.

New York: Hillary Rodham Clinton has her eye on 2008, and she does not seem to understand that she must be re-elected in the Empire State. At first glance, that would not be a difficult task since the other Senator won a record landslide this year. The only way she would be denied a second term is if Governor George E. Pataki or former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani decides to challenge her.

New Jersey: Jon Corzine wants to be Governor, and what happens here depends on what happens in 2005. Were Corzine to lose the primary to Codey or the general election a Republican, he would automatically become a top-tier target. On the Republican side, one of the Congressional delegation or former Governor Whitman would be a strong nominee.

Delaware: Senator Tom Carper was a popular Governor, and he is a popular Senator. This is a Democratic hold unless Congressman Castle seeks the nomination.

Maryland: Paul Sarbanes is a long-time and popular Democratic incumbent. Were he to run for re-election, Sarbanes would be a lock. However he may retire, and that would mean a top-tier GOP target were Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele to run. The Democrats would have a very crowded primary field, which would only benefit Steele.

Michigan: Debbie Stabenow is one of the dimmest lightbulbs in the Senate, and I expect the GOP will mount a strong challenge, likely from a member of the congressional delegation. Given the state’s increasingly Republican lean, this should be a toss-up until election day.

Wisconsin: Senator Kohl is a liberal, but he is also a very popular and wealthy liberal. Unless he retires, this is a Democratic hold. Were he to retire, the GOP might nominate former Governor Thompson or a member of the congressional delegation. I would rate the race slight Republican.

Minnesota: Senator Mark Dayton is another of the dimmest lightbulbs in the Senate, and his recent behavior underlined this attribute. The GOP will probably nominate a member of the congressional delegation. This race starts as a toss-up.

Florida: Bill Nelson must be lonely. He is the only Democrat elected statewide, and Republicans are anxious to complete their sweep of the Sunshine State. However they must first sort through what promises to be a crowded primary field. The strongest GOP nominee would be outgoing Governor Jeb Bush.

North Dakota: There are rumors that Governor Hoeven or former Governor Ed Schafer might run against Conrad. Were either man to run, it would be an automatic toss-up. The Democratic streak in the congressional delegation must end someday. However if neither man runs, then Conrad will win again. Do me a favor, and call both Republicans, urging them to run.

Nebraska: Another GOP target, Ben Nelson, may retire since Governor Johanns seems eager to run for his seat. Johanns vs. Nelson would be a toss-up, but I suspect would ultimately lean toward the Republican Governor.

New Mexico: Senator Jeff Bingaman is not the most prominent member of the Senate, but he is a popular incumbent. Were he to run for re-election, he would be a solid bet. However he may decide to retire, in which case Congresswoman Heather Wilson would be the strongest GOP candidate.

California: Diane Feinstein will probably retire. Expect a very close and expensive race.

Washington: Maria Cantwell is another dim lightbulb, and Republicans would be ecstatic if former Congresswoman Dunn ran against her in 2006.

Hawaii: Snooze.

West Virginia: Robert Byrd wins again if he runs again. Considering that he has been a Senator since Eisenhower was President, I expect he will run again and win again. When he retires, this will be a GOP pick-up.

I may have missed a race since I did this off the top of my head, so e-mail me if I have made a mistake. I have not done the Republicans yet, but if my memory serves me correctly, only Senator Rick Santorum can remotely be considered vulnerable.

However I see 2006 as a very good year for us if Elizabeth Dole, Karl Rove, and President Bush start working the phones early.

– Alexander K. McClure

Far-left Democratic Congresswoman, Zoe Lofgren, of the San Francisco Bay Area, plans to introduce a prospective Constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College.

Cute, huh?

Incidentally, this will not be Ms. Lofgren’s “15 minutes,” so to speak.

Last March, a woman who had worked for Lofgren as a Congressional aide, back in 2002, was arrested by the F.B.I., on charges that she had served as a “paid agent” for the Iraqi Intelligence Services, both prior, and subsequent, to the U.S.-led military assault to take down Saddam Hussein’s government.

And in a final bit of liberal irony, Congresswoman Lofgren’s former aide began her political career as a reporter for the Pravda-like Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Um, could you have scripted all that for an uproarious political satire?

Hat tip: To my good buddy, Kurt Schlichter, hard-core, defense-side litigator, from So. Cal., and a true American hero.

— Jayson