The Contest: GOP primary for the opportunity to run for the U.S. Senate seat, in Florida, being vacated by the retiring Bob Graham.
The Contestants: Former HUD official Mel Martinez and former Congressman Bill McCollum.
Date: August 27, 2004
Source: Resarch 2000/Florida Times-Union/South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Poll: McCollum leads Martinez, 35-31. The race is deemed a “statistical dead heat.”
The Actual Result
Date: August 31, 2004
Result: Martinez beats McCollum . . . by 14 percentage points.
They swung and missed the way a rookie just up from the minors typically fared against Nolan Ryan or Roger Clemens.
Now, to be fair, Florida’ s liberal media did note, as did Mason-Dixon (which had the race pegged at 33-27 for Martinez, with 18 percent undecided), that Martinez had momentum on his side. So, one possibility is that vast swaths of Florida GOP voters came into the Martinez camp in the past few days and weeks.
On the other hand, perhaps the liberal media tried to shape public opinion with slanted polls (hint: as previously stated on this blog, Martinez, by far, is the better general election candidate for the GOP, and obviously will help George Bush tremendously), but when it became obvious that their attempt to knock Martinez out of the race would not succeed, they had no choice but to adjust their “poll,” to reflect the reality on the ground. After all, it is a touch embarrassing, is it not, when a polling agency misses the results of a GOP primary by, oh, say, 23 percentage points?
We report, you decide.-- Jayson