More on the effects of the Bush ad campaign:
A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows a remarkable turnaround in 17 battleground states where polls and historic trends indicate the race will be close, and where the Bush campaign has aired TV ads. Those ads say Bush has provided “steady leadership in times of change” while portraying Kerry as a tax-hiking, flip-flopping liberal. (Related item: Latest poll results)-- PoliPundit
The ads have been one factor in wiping away an inflated lead Kerry held in those states. Most of them have had primaries or caucuses that allowed Democrats to dominate the news and Kerry to emerge as a victor. In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those states, 63% to 35%. Now Bush leads Kerry in them by six points, 51% to 45%.
In contrast, there has been much less volatility in states where the ads haven’t aired. Kerry held a four-point lead in them in February; Bush holds a two-point lead now.