Politics Blog

More on the effects of the Bush ad campaign:

A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows a remarkable turnaround in 17 battleground states where polls and historic trends indicate the race will be close, and where the Bush campaign has aired TV ads. Those ads say Bush has provided “steady leadership in times of change” while portraying Kerry as a tax-hiking, flip-flopping liberal. (Related item: Latest poll results)

The ads have been one factor in wiping away an inflated lead Kerry held in those states. Most of them have had primaries or caucuses that allowed Democrats to dominate the news and Kerry to emerge as a victor. In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those states, 63% to 35%. Now Bush leads Kerry in them by six points, 51% to 45%.

In contrast, there has been much less volatility in states where the ads haven’t aired. Kerry held a four-point lead in them in February; Bush holds a two-point lead now.

— PoliPundit

All those Bush ads are having an effect. 41 percent of Americans now see John Kerry as “too liberal,” up from 29 percent in January. This has had an effect in the head-to-head matchup as well.

However, as I never tire of saying, there are still seven months left until the elections. In that period, there will be important events, including gay marriages in Massachusetts, the handover of power in Iraq, the Democrat national convention in Boston (out of which Kerry will get a huge bounce; he’s an effective speaker, no matter what the pundits say), the Summer Olympics, the GOP national convention in New York, the elections in Afghanistan in September, US presidential debates, and any unforeseen surprises such as a terrorist attack or an October Surprise. Polls taken at this point in time mean very little.

— PoliPundit

How much would John Kerry’s gas tax increases cost you? Find out with this nifty calculator.

Then watch the new Bush TV ad on this, which is the most effective one so far. The ad is funny, focuses laserlike on one issue, and features the best possible victim - you. It plays into, and solidifies, the already-congealing image of Kerry as a wacky liberal.

— PoliPundit

What goes around comes around.

— PoliPundit

John Kerry is off the campaign trail for a few weeks:

As Sen. John Kerry prepares to go under the knife for a shoulder injury tomorrow, he got grim news from his doctor.

For a regular person, his prognosis is excellent. But for a politician in the throes of a major political campaign, it was close to terminal:

• No handshaking for at least three weeks.
• No high-fiving or fist-pumping for five to six weeks.
• And no baby-hugging for at least eight weeks.

“This will be done on an out-patient basis and I expect a full recovery,” said Dr. Bertram Zarins, head of sports medicine at Massachusetts General Hospital. “Within two or three weeks, he’ll be shaking hands again.”

For a pol going head-to-head with President Bush, three weeks is an eternity without a rope line.

But I’m sure the lying liberal media will keep the anti-Bush stories coming while Kerry is away. So don’t expect any let up in the campaign.

— PoliPundit

More on the effects of the Bush ad campaign:

A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows a remarkable turnaround in 17 battleground states where polls and historic trends indicate the race will be close, and where the Bush campaign has aired TV ads. Those ads say Bush has provided “steady leadership in times of change” while portraying Kerry as a tax-hiking, flip-flopping liberal. (Related item: Latest poll results)

The ads have been one factor in wiping away an inflated lead Kerry held in those states. Most of them have had primaries or caucuses that allowed Democrats to dominate the news and Kerry to emerge as a victor. In a survey taken in mid-February, Kerry led Bush by 28 percentage points in those states, 63% to 35%. Now Bush leads Kerry in them by six points, 51% to 45%.

In contrast, there has been much less volatility in states where the ads haven’t aired. Kerry held a four-point lead in them in February; Bush holds a two-point lead now.

— PoliPundit

“Never in the course of human events have so many been so libelled by so few.”

– John O’Neill, John Kerry’s debating opponent on a 1971 episode of the Dick Cavett show (Kerry stuck firmly to his contention that virtually every GI in Vietnam was a war criminal.)

C-SPAN’s Road to the White House broadcast this episode yesterday. I hope the RNC and Bush campaign recorded it (although it’ll probably also be available on C-SPAN’s web site shortly.) Kerry made some questionable statements, like saying that he quit the navy because he was opposed to the war.

Kerry 30 years ago was very much like the Kerry of today, a “nuanced” slimeball who threw away someone else’s medals. However, his say-anything style allowed him to eventually win the debate against the passionate, but unfortunately honest O’Neill, whose attacks against Kerry were deftly deflected. The Bush debate prep team would do well to watch this debate.

— PoliPundit

Readers are complaining that 60 Minutes was much tougher on Condi Rice than they were on Richard Clarke. I wouldn’t know, since I stopped watching 60 Minutes a long time ago.

Liberal bias on 60 Minutes, and on all of CBS, is nothing new. Dan Rather’s notorious 1988 interview with Bush Sr. is a classic example of CBS bias. But, more recently, the 60 Minutes show on the Sunday before the 2002 elections was a revelation. It featured only two pieces, both carefully calculated to drive up Democrat turnout. First was a piece on how South African white supremacists had supposedly used bio warfare against blacks during the Apartheid era. Second was a flattering puff piece on Ron Kirk, a black Democrat running for a Texas Senate seat. The piece featured supposedly objective commentary by Molly Ivins. ‘Nuff said.

— PoliPundit

Remember my suggestion that negative ads feature an Average Joe making the case against Kerry? Well, check out the new Bush radio ad released today.

It’s not as well-produced as I’d like; but it’s a start. I wish the campaign would run ads that each focus laserlike on just one egregious Kerry vote/factoid. And feature a sympathetic victim, preferably female and preferably very young or very old.

— PoliPundit

Completely off-topic. But, if you’re an Iron Chef fan like me, this news has got to warm the cockles.

And there was also news this month that a Firefly movie has been greenlighted. March has been a very satisfying month for fans of quality TV.

— PoliPundit