Approval Ratings
An interesting factoid on presidential job approval ratings:
Polls are useful, but it’s too early to predict a winner, says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll. Bush’s approval in March or April will be a more reliable clue to his staying power, Newport says.He points out that every incumbent president since Roosevelt who was at 50% approval or higher in April of his election year went on to win. “If Bush is still above 50% in April, a defeat in November would be unprecedented,” Newport says.
The last two presidents who lost their bids for re-election, Carter and the elder Bush, were both at 39% approval in April of the election year.
In March 1968, Johnson’s job approval was 36%, due largely to growing objections to the Vietnam War. He quit the race.
In March 1952, Harry Truman’s approval had been dragged to 25% by the Korean War. Truman won a full term after serving a partial one following Roosevelt’s death, but ended his 1952 re-election campaign after losing the New Hampshire primary.
So, while the president’s job approval ratings today may affect the Democrat primaries, look for the March/April numbers to discern the general election results.
— PoliPundit