So, what are my predictions for 2004? Well, I see no reason to change the predictions I made over a year ago, on November 7, 2002:
I’ll do the obviousstuff first, that will play out in the next few weeks and months. Democrats in congress will now fight a bloody civil war within their ranks between those who say they need to move to the center and those True Believers who will say they lost because they moved too far away from their ideological moorings.
The Liberals will win.
Nancy Pelosi will become House Minority Leader, defeating moderate Martin Frost. This is perfect for Republicans. Pelosi is a hard-left San Francisco Liberal who voted against the Iraq resolution. If the GOP needs a bogeyman, she’ll be glad to play the part. Pelosi’s ascendance will result in the defection of some moderate Democrats to the GOP, giving the GOP an even bigger margin in the House.
In the Senate, Tom Daschle may be able to fend off a challenge from Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd for his post as Minority Leader. Daschle will likely barely prevail and preside over a fractious caucus where the Liberals clamour for evermore leftward drift and moderates seriously consider defecting to the GOP to disassociate themselves from the Liberals and save their skins.
Meanwhile, the White House and congressional Republicans will put forward a disciplined agenda consisting of more tax cuts, rolling back regulations, Tort Reform (particularly sweet since it hits the Democrats’ fund raising base - trial lawyers), ANWR exploration, a department of Homeland Security, reforms of agencies like the INS, EPA and IRS, and the confirmation of true-blue young Conservative judges to the federal judiciary. Moderate and vulnerable Democrats will be forced to go along with these proposals. In the past, Democrats could vote like Liberals in Washington and then go home and lie to their Conservative constituents. That will no longer work. As the GOP Senate candidates proved this time, 30-second attack ads featuring a candidate’s position on a defining issue can be particularly effective in beating moderate Democrats in Republican states.
Saddam Hussein is toast. An attack on Iraq in 2003 will result in a further boost for Bush’s approval ratings and enable him to pass even more of his agenda.
Now for some speculation (in politics, 2 years is a lifetime; so some of this stuff is quite likely to be wrong.) The economy will come roaring back, setting Bush up for re-election in 2004. Bush will run for re-election on a bold platform of Social Security partial privatization, a flat income tax or national sales tax to replace the current “progressive” income tax, and his successful prosecution of the War on Terrorism. Now largely devoid of moderate voices because of the 2003 purges, Democrats will revert to their Liberal roots and give their Presidential nomination to someone far to the left, like John Kerry of Massachusetts or Howard Dean of Vermont. This candidate will get shellacked by Bush, setting up a GOP majority that might prove as enduring as FDR’s Democratic majority in the 1930s. Remember that it took the GOP almost 50 years to overcome the thumping it got from FDR.
So far, those predictions have held up pretty well, no? The last paragraph is the only one that still needs to be tested.
– PoliPundit