Politics Blog

From the Chicago Sun-Times:

Presidential candidate and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean wowed the crowd at the DNC winter meeting with his hard-left rhetoric. Dean seems to have performed remarkably well with Democratic crowds so far (if you watch C-SPAN’s Road To The White House on Sundays, you’ve seen him in action.)

John Kerry is clearly the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination; but, in my opinion, the person most likely to beat him isn’t Joe Lieberman (too hawkish, too soporific), John Edwards (too callow, too ambulance-chaser), Dick Gephardt (too blonde, too bland) or Bob Graham (too crazy, too grandfatherly.) The person most likely to beat Kerry for the nomination is Howard Dean. It’s easy to see Dean becoming the darling of the liberal press and carrying Iowa, with its Democratic caucus peaceniks, and making a strong showing in New Hampshire, which is next door to his home state. Good results in the first two states in the primary should more than make up for his relative lack of name ID. As for money, the fact that he has endorsements from Rob Reiner and Martin Sheen should help with fundraising from Hollywood.

The Washington Times has a great editorial making the point that McCain-Feingold is giving DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe migraines:

AsTexas governor running in the GOP primaries, Mr. Bush obliterated all fund-raising records. He raised a phenomenal $100 million in hard money in 1999 and 2000, when the individual limit was $1,000. As president, and with Mr. McAuliffe’s cherished McCain-Feingold bill doubling the individual hard-money limit to $2,000, all bets are off. Fair guestimates would begin at $300 million, which would be nearly seven times the $44 million limit Democratic presidential candidates could spend during the primaries and before the convention if they accepted public subsidies, as most, if not all, are expected to do.

His wish having been granted, Mr. McAuliffe has now gone from shell shock to cold turkey. The bad news for him is that the shivers are unlikely to cease any time soon

My full 2004 Senate analysis from November is beginning to look a bit dated; so here are some updates on key races.

First the bad news: Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R-IL) is plummeting in the polls and can be beaten by just about any credible Democrat. On the positive side, Fitzgerald will at least spend some of his considerable wealth and draw Democratic resources away from other races in a year in which they’ll be facing a serious fundraising disadvantage because of McCain-Feingold.

Now the good news (and there’s plenty of it):

1. Senator Bob Graham (D-FL) is looking increasingly likely to run for president. His spokesman says he won’t be running for the Senate if he runs for president, which would leave an open seat that the GOP could pick up. Former Rep. Bill McCollum (who was defeated in a 2000 Senate run) and Rep. Mark Foley are the likely contenders for the GOP nomination. Foley is more electable, but McCollum is much more desirable, since he’s a genuine conservative. The Democratic bench is unattractive except for Miami-Dade mayor Alex Penelas. If Penelas is the Democratic nominee, expect a tossup race because he’ll eat into the GOP’s Cuban-American vote. If not, expect a slight GOP advantage.

2. Zell Miller (D-GA) is retiring and has said he won’t back any candidate in the 2004 Senate race. Georgia is an increasingly Republican state and the GOP has a much better than 50-50 chance of holding this seat. Reps. Jack Kingston and Johnny Isakson are the likely GOP contenders. Kingston is conservative across the board, while Isakson is pro-choice. I’d prefer Kingston, since a state like Georgia has no business sending a pro-choice senator to Washington.

3. The decks have been cleared for Rep. Jim DeMint to challenge Senator Fritz Hollings (D-SC) in 2004. Rep. Joe Wilson dropped out of the race, perhaps at the White House’s urging. Other candidates might step into the race, but expect the White House to ensure that the eventual nominee does not emerge scarred by a bruising primary. This is now a tossup race.

4. Will Senator John Breaux (D-LA) retire? If so, his open seat will become a tossup contest.

5. Republican Rep. Richard Burr might get a free ride in the primaries so that he can pose a tough challenge to Senator John Edwards (D-NC). Edwards’ presidential run is forcing him to stake out far-left positions and alienate voters back home. Keep in mind that 2002 losing candidate Erskine Bowles lost by 9 points despite getting more votes than Edwards got in 1998. North Carolina tends to elect Democrats in non-presidential years and Republicans in presidential years. Also, this Senate seat has changed hands every time in the last five elections.

6. Republicans have a strong candidate in mind to challenge Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) - Rep. Jim Gibbons. Reid was hoping that Tom Daschle would step down as Senate minority leader to run for president, thus enabling Reid to run for re-election as the minority leader; but that didn’t happen. This is going to be another close call for Reid, with large amounts of money and effort required, that could be better spent elsewhere.

7. Armed with a Republican poll showing a tossup race, Republicans are trying to get losing 2002 Senate candidate John Thune to challenge Senator Tom Daschle (D-SD) for his Senate seat in 2004. If Thune accepts, this race will require yet more expenditures of money and effort from the Democrats that could be better spent elsewhere.

8. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) is looking vulnerable because of her Osama comments. A Republican poll showed her in a tight race with Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn, who is being pressured by the White House to run. If Dunn runs, expect a nail-biter of a race.

As for the other Senate races, the situation remains largely unchanged from November. You can read my full November analysis here.

Overall, the situation has gotten slightly better for Republicans since November, due to Democratic retirements and Republican candidate recruiting. Much will depend, though, on the presidential race. There hasn’t been a presidential candidate with coattails for about two decades now, which leads me to believe it’s about time for the pattern to be broken.

Georgia Republican Chairman Ralph Reed, who engineered a seismic shift in Georgia politics in 2002, is moving on to the GOP presidential campaign in 2004. Let’s hope his Get Out The Vote (GOTV) skills will work nationwide.

Democrats are trying to get their act together for 2004. They have a new project called Project 5104 (51% in 2004) that will adopt many of the data-intensive,targeted, hard-money fundraising and Get Out The Vote (GOTV) tactics that the GOP used successfully in 2002.

Rush Limbaugh has been pointing out a Stratfor.com story which details Jacques Chirac’s long-standing personal relationship with Saddam Hussein, going back to Iraq’s early attempts to make a nuclear weapon in the ’70s. Given the venality and petty corruption that characterizes French politicians and bureaucrats, is it too much to wonder if Chirac is literally in Saddam’s pocket?

The German justice system: 3,000 counts of accessory to murder and the maximum sentence is 15 years.

Over here, Taliban John Walker Lindh is doing 20 years as part of a lenient plea bargain, even though he had no direct involvement with 9/11.

A guy from a web site called Brain-Terminal.com interviewed many “anti-war” protesters and asked them what they’d do to solve the Iraqi disarmamentproblem. You absolutely have to watch the video he made. It’s hilarious.

You’ll need QuickTime to watch the video.

I dare anyone to explain how France can be considered an ally any more. Will they come to our aid if we’re attacked? Will they come to our allies’ aid? Will they support us on the international stage? They don’t even contribute troops to NATO. All they do is obstruct and delay.

We have a new enemy now. It’s called France. France is to us today what the USSR was until a decade ago: our arch-enemy. It is committed to denying us security by supporting our enemies and opposing our friends. No better proof is needed of this new French attitude than France’s vetoing of aid to Turkey and its resolute obstruction of the US at the UNSC. If the old Soviet Union had been around today, would it have behaved any differently? I think not. France is as irrevocably committed to far-left socialism as the Soviet Union was. The only difference is that the French elect their hard-left heads of state.

It’s easy to understand why the French feel comfortable confronting us: they pay no price for it! We’re not appeasing Saddam Hussein. We’re appeasing Jacques Chirac.

It is time to make the French pay. They’ve chosen to be our enemies. So be it. Let’s ring France with nuclear missiles and submarines. Let’s veto anything they bring up at the UNSC. We should send a new message to our allies in Europe: Either you’re with us or you’re with the French. After all, the French certainly don’t seem to be shy about sending that message to our allies. We should launch economic and military sanctions against every ally of the French. As a matter of national security, we should start denying visas to anyone who’s lived in France or Germany (that measure alone would have stopped the 9/11 hijackings.)

We can try to kick France out of NATO. If we fail, we can withdraw from NATO and sign a new mutual-defense pact with our allies. We could even sign it in Warsaw and call it the Warsaw Pact for ultimate irony.

Let’s take France’s attitude to its logical conclusion. France wants to be a presence on the global stage. Let’s make it one by declaring a new cold war and see who wins.