Politics Blog

The 2004 Democratic Presidential Candidate

Since I got lucky in predicting Election 2002 by following my gut and going out on a limb, I’m going to try it again. You heard it here first: Barring an unforeseen mega-event, Al Gore will be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2004.

The media is still pretending that it’s trying to figure out whether Gore is running for president; but you don’t give major policy speeches criticizing the Bush administration, write a book on “the American family” and then do a frenzied media book tour, unless you want to run for something. And Gore sure ain’t running for governor.

If Gore runs, he’s practically a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination because:

1. The Democratic primary schedule has been compressed, giving the front-runner an advantage. In effect, it’s more like a national primary, in which the person with the most name recognition and money will have an enormous advantage.

2. Democrats haven’t gotten over the “we wuz robbed” theme. Now, I don’t pretend to understand Democrats; they’re pretty much martians to me. But, when you look at the polls and talk to Democrats, it’s apparent that Florida 2000 is fresh in their minds. Since liberal Democrats are disproportionately represented in the Democratic primary, this gives Gore a huge advantage.

3. Gore is a candidate with nothing to lose. He will, therefore, “out-left” the other candidates, as he has begun to do with his blistering Iraq policy criticisms and single-payer healthcare endorsement. This plays well to the Democratic primary electorate.

4. The other candidates are remarkably unappealing. It’s hard to say that when you’re comparing them to (drum roll) Al Gore! But it’s true. Would you rather be put to sleep by John Kerry, unimpressed by John Edwards or repulsed by Joe Lieberman?

So there you go. Barring an unforeseen mega-event, Al Gore will be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2004.

Wonderful article in FrontPage Mag on Democrats’ willingness to say anything to win:

“After 1964 and before 1992, the Democrats lost five of six presidential elections, including three landslides. Their positions had become so unpopular that the term

The Political Wire has links to Gore’s slow book sales, his dropping popularity among the general electorate and his continuing popularity among Democrats.

The 2004 Democratic Presidential Candidate

Since I got lucky in predicting Election 2002 by following my gut and going out on a limb, I’m going to try it again. You heard it here first: Barring an unforeseen mega-event, Al Gore will be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2004.

The media is still pretending that it’s trying to figure out whether Gore is running for president; but you don’t give major policy speeches criticizing the Bush administration, write a book on “the American family” and then do a frenzied media book tour, unless you want to run for something. And Gore sure ain’t running for governor.

If Gore runs, he’s practically a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination because:

1. The Democratic primary schedule has been compressed, giving the front-runner an advantage. In effect, it’s more like a national primary, in which the person with the most name recognition and money will have an enormous advantage.

2. Democrats haven’t gotten over the “we wuz robbed” theme. Now, I don’t pretend to understand Democrats; they’re pretty much martians to me. But, when you look at the polls and talk to Democrats, it’s apparent that Florida 2000 is fresh in their minds. Since liberal Democrats are disproportionately represented in the Democratic primary, this gives Gore a huge advantage.

3. Gore is a candidate with nothing to lose. He will, therefore, “out-left” the other candidates, as he has begun to do with his blistering Iraq policy criticisms and single-payer healthcare endorsement. This plays well to the Democratic primary electorate.

4. The other candidates are remarkably unappealing. It’s hard to say that when you’re comparing them to (drum roll) Al Gore! But it’s true. Would you rather be put to sleep by John Kerry, unimpressed by John Edwards or repulsed by Joe Lieberman?

So there you go. Barring an unforeseen mega-event, Al Gore will be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2004.

Al Gore was signing books at a nearby Costco in Issaquah, WA on Friday. From what I’ve heard, the crowd was very thin.

Is there anything symbolic in the fact that Bush at War is #2 on Amazon, while Gore’s new book is #1350, despite his media blitz?

UPDATE: Gore’s book is now at #2890

ANWR Drilling Could Pass This Year

Conventional wisdom holds that ANWR drilling won’t be able to muster a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. However, if it’s included in the Budget Reconciliation bill, then it only needs 50 votes (plus Cheney’s tie-breaker) to pass. ANWR drilling lost the last time around 54-46. However, three ANWR drilling opponents (Jean Carnahan, Bob Smith and Max Cleland) lost their 2002 races and were replaced by ANWR drilling supporters.

This means that ANWR drilling could come down to Norm Coleman’s vote. If he were to vote for ANWR drilling, Coleman could claim that he voted for the Budget Reconciliation bill as a whole, even though he would have voted against ANWR drilling if it had been in an energy bill.

Alternately, the president could help swing the votes of Mike Dewine or Peter Fitzgerald, who voted against ANWR drilling the last time it came up.

Moderate House Democrats are already beginning to consider switching parties. Redistricting changes in Texas will probably cause more to jump ship.

Al Gore was signing books at a nearby Costco in Issaquah, WA on Friday. From what I’ve heard, the crowd was very thin.

Is there anything symbolic in the fact that Bush at War is #2 on Amazon, while Gore’s new book is #1350, despite his media blitz?

UPDATE: Gore’s book is now at #2890

ANWR Drilling Could Pass This Year

Conventional wisdom holds that ANWR drilling won’t be able to muster a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. However, if it’s included in the Budget Reconciliation bill, then it only needs 50 votes (plus Cheney’s tie-breaker) to pass. ANWR drilling lost the last time around 54-46. However, three ANWR drilling opponents (Jean Carnahan, Bob Smith and Max Cleland) lost their 2002 races and were replaced by ANWR drilling supporters.

This means that ANWR drilling could come down to Norm Coleman’s vote. If he were to vote for ANWR drilling, Coleman could claim that he voted for the Budget Reconciliation bill as a whole, even though he would have voted against ANWR drilling if it had been in an energy bill.

Alternately, the president could help swing the votes of Mike Dewine or Peter Fitzgerald, who voted against ANWR drilling the last time it came up.

Moderate House Democrats are already beginning to consider switching parties. Redistricting changes in Texas will probably cause more to jump ship.